Modeling Monetary Policy Dynamics: A Comparison of Regime Switching and Time Varying Parameter Approaches

Structural VAR models have been widely used to model monetary policy dynamics. Typically, a choice is made between regime-switching models and time-varying parameter models. In this paper we use a canonical model of monetary policy and estimate both types of time variation in monetary policy while also allowing for changing variances. The models are compared using marginal likelihood and forecast performance evaluation. We analyze whether the two frameworks identify similar dynamic patterns in the data and if the decision to choose one method over the other matters for the identification of monetary policy shocks.